Ward 3 Ranked Choice Voting Poll

Thanks to all who participated in the Ranked Choice Voting poll for the Ward 3 Council race in the Democratic Primary. This is not a scientific poll, but a fun way to examine how Ranked Choice Voting, also known as instant runoff voting, works and how it can impact elections.

Does a plurality winner have enough secondary support to extend their lead, or will secondary support for another candidate lift them above the first-past-the-post winner? RCV allows voters to vote for who they want to win and state a next-best option if their choice doesn't have broader support. It relieves voters from the pressure of thinking they must vote for "the lesser of two evils."

On to the results... (spreadsheets with raw data, elimination rounds and tallies can be found here).

In the poll, 190 first choice ballots were cast (we lost a few participants who either didn't live in Ward 3 or were not registered Democrats). Here are the first choice results:

Beau Finley received the most votes (59 votes), but is still far short of a majority (96 votes need). Matt Frumin gets the second most number of votes (42 votes). In this poll, Eric Goulet is a distant third (25 votes. From a RCV perspective, the questions are: Does Finley have enough secondary support to maintain his lead, or Will there be enough secondary support for Frumin to surpass Finely as the lowest performing candidates supporters' votes are allocated?

Round 1: The first candidate to be eliminated is Deirdre Brown, who received the lowest number of votes. Her two votes are then allocated to their second choices. Both Finley and Frumin pick up a vote each, thus not changing Finley’s advantage over Frumin. With no candidate at a majority of votes, the next lowest vote getter will be eliminated in Round 2.

Round 2: Monte Monash has the next least number of votes, so her voters’ second choice one votes get allocated. Each of Monash’s four votes goes to a different second choice candidate. The leader, Finley, is still at 60 votes and does not have a majority, so we move to elimination Round 3.

Round 3: Henry Cohen has the next lowest number of votes. His seven voters will be reassigned based on their second choice. Finley picks up four votes, while Frumin, Thomas and Bergmann each pick up one. At 64 votes, Finley is still 32 votes short of a majority. On to Round 4.

Round 4: Tricia Duncan has the next least number of votes. Her voters’ second choice (or third or fourth as needed if since other candidates have been eliminated) will be reallocated. Duncan’s 12 votes do not alter the race significantly as Finley and Bergmann each get 4 votes, Frumin 3 and Thomas 1. At 68 votes, Finley still holds the lead, but not a majority.

Round 5: Ben Bergmann has the next least number of votes, now at 22. His voters’ next surviving choice will be reallocated. Most of Bergmann’s voters go to Frumin, either directly as being their second choice, or as third or fourth choices since other candidates had been eliminated. Frumin picks up 14 votes, Finley 4, and Thomas 2. Finley still holds the lead, a bit more narrowly, and still does not have a majority. Note here that some of Bergmann’s voters did not have any remaining candidates left in their lesser ranked votes, so those voters fall out of the denominator.

Round 6: Eric Goulet now has the lowest number of votes at 26, so his voters will be allocated to the next top choice of the surviving candidates. Phil Thomas gets most of these votes, picking up 12. Finley gets 7 and Frumin 4. Finely still leads Frumin, but still does not have a majority. Here we also see the denominator shrink by three as the Goulet voters have no more viable candidates as a lesser choice. On to the seventh and final elimination round.

Round 7: Of the three remaining candidates, Phil Thomas has the least number of votes (40). Frumin picks up most of them, but not enough to overtake Finely, who at 92 votes, wins the majority of viable ballots cast in the seventh and final round of elimination.

To answer the question at the start, in this poll Finley did have enough secondary support to maintain is initial lead, although that lead narrowed in favor of Frumin as the votes were reallocated, with Frumin picking up a net 40 voters and Finley a net 33. Sixteen votes were uncounted as first and subsequent choice candidates were eliminated.

Hopefully this exercise shows how RCV can be useful either to reinforce broader support of the plurality winner, or by allowing a more broadly supported candidate to possibly overtake a plurality winner that had little support beyond their base. Thanks again to all who participated in the poll!

Here is an opinion piece written by At-Large Councilmember Christina Henderson this past week in the DC Line. I hope DC can move to RCV in future elections so voters can vote who they want to win. For more information about RCV, visit FairVote.